Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,076$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,062.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,062.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $69$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.49 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(79.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $659$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,092$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(905 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,537.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25,537.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,586$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,957.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,957.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,501$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,738$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,514.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,514.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $210$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(21.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216.2}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(216.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,496$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,995$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(324 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,437.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,437.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $211$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(8.86 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(303.7\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,784$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,356$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(926 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,691.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,691.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $452$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(49.3 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{451.1}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 27.1)}}\) (asimptote \(451.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,163$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,797$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(304 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.2\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.7}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 23.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $117$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $48,519$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,833.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(50,833.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,594$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(370 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,831.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,831.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,349$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $172,481$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(6.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,092.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(185,092.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,842$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,077.1}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,077.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $144,780$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $205,463$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{202,663.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(202,663.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,967$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,765.2\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $101,551$ on 2020-04-30
